AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK--SUMMARY                                  April 21, 1997
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
==============================================================================TThis SUMMARY is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research
Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The
complete text of AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK (AO-240) will be available 2-3 working
days following release of this summary.
==============================================================================

FARMERS SIGNAL LARGEST SOYBEAN ACREAGE SINCE 1982

Soybean and Corn Planting Intentions Up

Soybeans and corn are the field crops showing the greatest jump from 1996 in
planted acreage, while wheat and sorghum show the largest decline, according
to USDA's March 1997 Prospective Plantings report.  The report, based on a
survey of farmers, provides the first indication of farmers' spring planting
intentions for major field crops.  Soybean plantings will be the largest since
1982, and corn the largest since 1985.

Soybean planting intentions in 1997 at 68.8 million acres are up 7 percent
from last year's planted acreage.  A significant increase in soybean acreage
for 1997 had been widely anticipated, given tight supplies of U.S. soybeans
and higher prices.  Corn planting intentions are bolstered by prices that
remain higher than in much of the 1990's (although down sharply from the highs
of last spring).  Total wheat planting intentions are down 8 percent; however,
the recent runup in wheat prices may push actual plantings above early-season
intentions. [Mark Simone (202) 219-0823]

Potato Price Slump to Reduce Plantings

A depressed potato market is likely to force down the fall-crop planted area
by about 6 percent from last season.  Prices for sugar beets and dry edible
beans--the likely substitute crops in many principal potato-growing regions
(e.g., the Northern Plains and Lake States)--are relatively more favorable. 
Under the weight of large potato supplies, monthly grower prices have averaged
27 percent below last year's since September, with the sharpest declines in
the fresh market.  During September-February 1996/97, fresh-market prices
averaged $4.13 a cwt, down 51 percent from a year earlier. [Charles Plummer
(202) 219-0717]

U.S. Egg Production Crackling

U.S. egg production has grown every year since 1989 and is expected to reach
nearly 79 billion in 1997.  Some of the growth has been driven by a 46-percent
increase in hatching eggs to supply an expanding broiler industry.  Strong
growth of egg use in processed food products has also provided an expanding
outlet for egg producers and has helped to slow the long-term decline in U.S.
table-egg use per capita.  Finally, phenomenal growth in U.S. egg
exports--shell eggs and egg products--in the past 3 years has resulted in an
ever-increasing share of domestic production destined for foreign markets.
[Milton
Madison (202) 219-0046]

USDA's Water Quality Program

USDA's Water Quality Program (WQP) promotes adoption of voluntary alternative
management practices by farmers, in an effort to protect the nation's waters
from agricultural chemicals and waste products.  Established in 1990, the WQP
builds upon past programs to reduce nonpoint-source pollution.  Out of
experience with the WQP and past USDA water quality programs, several lessons
have emerged that provide important guidance for future programs.  Among the
lessons: cost-effectiveness is enhanced when program activities are targeted
to watersheds where agriculture is the primary source of water quality
impairment; and success is more likely when farmers receive education,
technical assistance, and financial assistance in a coordinated fashion. 
[Marc Ribaudo (202) 501-8387]

Assessing Integrated Pest Management

USDA's National Initiative on Integrated Pest Management calls for a broad
assessment that documents the economic, environmental, and public-health
impacts of IPM adoption.  While IPM is defined in a number of ways, there is
general agreement that it is a systems approach to pest management that
combines a wide array of crop production practices with careful monitoring of
pests.  

Analysts face a number of challenges in developing assessments of the impacts
of pesticide use and alternative pest management practices.  First, gaps exist
in the data needed to evaluate impacts in areas of potential concern.  Second,
analysts must determine which environmental and public-health impacts to
assess, how to quantify improvements, and the weights to assign to different
impacts.  In addition, a unifying framework is needed to assess tradeoffs
among economic, environmental, and public-health impacts of alternative pest
management technologies.  [Sarah Lynch (202) 219-0456]

Strong Market in Middle East and North Africa

U.S. farm exports to the Middle East and North Africa grew by over a third
from calendar year 1990 to 1996.  Rising incomes, urbanization, strong
population growth, and trade policy changes are likely to spur additional
import growth, particularly in livestock products, oilseeds, some feedstuffs,
and high-value products.  In 1996, U.S. agricultural shipments to the region
tallied $4.5 billion (7.5 percent of the U.S. ag total), just under the record
$4.6 billion of 1995.  The region is a large importer of U.S. grains and
feedstuffs, including oilmeals, as well as high-value products such as cotton,
tobacco, and hides and skins.  Egypt, Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia account
for nearly 70 percent of U.S. sales to the region. [Michael Kurtzig (202)
219-0636]

Insuring Limited-Resource Farms

Recent changes in Federal farm programs have focused attention on the need for
U.S. farmers to manage risks of crop loss and price declines and to re-examine
available risk management options.  ERS research on the risk management needs
of farmers with limited-resources indicates that these farmers tend not to
purchase crop insurance nor to participate in current insurance-type programs
operated by USDA.  The  most likely factors are the type and size of their
operations and their general reliance on off-farm sources of household income. 
Program changes and additions currently under study, especially coverage of
additional crops and expanded outreach and educational efforts by USDA's Risk
Management Agency, may prompt limited-resource farmers to make greater use of
crop insurance and other risk management strategies. [Robert Dismukes (202)
219-0716]

Contracting--A Business Option for Many Farmers

Contracting has become a common business practice on all sizes of farms in all
areas of the country.  In 1993, contractual arrangements accounted for $47
billion--almost one-third of the U.S. farm value of production.  Producing
under contract is an integral part of the production and marketing of
livestock commodities, especially broilers, turkeys, eggs, and milk. 
Contracts for crops, especially fruits and vegetables, peanuts, and cotton,
are also common.  For farmers, contracts increase income stability and,
depending on the arrangement, permit concentration of management efforts on a
particular part of the production process.  For processors, contracts enhance
uniformity of products to suit consumers, which also lowers costs of
processing, packing, and grading. [Janet Perry (202) 219-0803]

Printed copies of Agricultural Outlook will be available in about 2 weeks. 
For further information call Randy Schnepf (202) 219-1281 or Ann E. Effland
(202) 501-8448.  The full text of the magazine will be available
electronically in 3 working days; for details, call (202) 219-0515.  

   
Table 1.  Key statistical indicators of the food and fiber sector

                                                           1996              
                                              ------------------------
                                              II       III        IV  

  Prices received by farmers (1990-92=100)   112       117       111  
    Livestock & products                      96       104       103  
    Crops                                    133       131       118  

  Prices paid by farmers, (1990-92=100)
    Production items                         115       116        --  
    Commodities & services, interest,        115       115        --  
     taxes, & wages

  Cash receipts ($ bil.) 1/                  205       202        --  
    Livestock ($ bil.)                        90        93        --  
    Crops ($ bil.)                           115       109        --  

  Market basket (1982-84=100)
    Retail cost                              154       157       160  
    Farm value                               109       114       114  
    Spread                                   179       180       184  
    Farm value/retail cost (%)                25        26        25  

  Retail prices (1982-84=100)
    All food                                 152       154       156  
      At home                                153       155       157  
      Away from home                         152       153       155  

  Agricultural exports ($ bil.) 2/          14.3      13.5      16.4  
  Agricultural imports ($ bil.) 2/           8.6       8.2       8.6  

  Commercial production
    Red meat (mil. lb.)                   10,897    10,688    10,694  
    Poultry (mil. lb.)                     8,075     8,162     8,043  
    Eggs (mil. doz.)                       1,563     1,594     1,632  
    Milk (bil. lb.)                         39.6      37.7      37.9  

  Consumption, per capita
    Red meat and poultry (lb.)              51.9      52.5      53.0  

  Corn beginning stock (mil. bu.) 3/     6,105.8   3,799.5   1,717.9  
  Corn use (mil. bu.) 3/                 2,311.2   2,086.7   1,294.8  

  Prices 4/
    Choice steers--Neb. Direct ($/cwt)     60.26     67.13     70.39  
    Barrows & gilts--IA, So. MN ($/cwt)    54.82     57.75     54.75  
    Broilers--12-city (cts./lb.)            61.1      64.2      63.5  
    Eggs--NY gr. A large (cts./doz.)        80.5      85.9      96.7  
    Milk--all at plant ($/cwt)             14.27     15.80     15.07  
                                                                      
  Wheat--KC HRW ordinary ($/bu.)            6.58      5.02      4.75  
  Corn--Chicago ($/bu.)                     4.81      4.11      2.77  
  Soybeans--Chicago ($/bu.)                 7.89      7.97      7.01  
  Cotton--Avg. spot 41-34 (cts./lb.)       82.71     76.08     71.44  



                                            1988      1989      1990  
                                            --------------------------
  Farm real estate values 5/,6/
    Nominal ($ per acre)                     632       668       683  
    Real (1982 $)                            530       539       528  

  1/ Quarterly data seasonally adjusted at annual rates.  2/ Annual data 
based on Oct.-Sept. fiscal years ending with year indicated.  
3/ Sept.-Nov. first quarter; Dec.-Feb. second quarter; Mar.-May third 
quarter; Jun.-Aug. fourth quarter; Sept.-Aug. annual.  Use includes 
exports & domestic disappearance.  4/ Simple averages, Jan.-Dec.  
5/ 1990-94 values as of January 1. 1986-89 values as of February 1.  
6/ The 1989-94 values are revised based on the 1992 Census of Agriculture.  
F = forecast, -- = not available.

..........................................................continued


................................................continued (new page)

   1996                           1997
--------       -------------------------------------------
  Annual        I F     II F      III F     IV F  Annual F

     112        --        --        --        --        --
      99        --        --        --        --        --
     127        --        --        --        --        --


      --        --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --        --


      --        --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --        --


     156        --        --        --        --        --
     111        --        --        --        --        --
     180        --        --        --        --        --
      25        --        --        --        --        --


     153       157       158       157       159       158
     154       158       158       158       158       158
     153       156       157       158       159       157

    59.8        --        --        --        --      56.5
    32.4        --        --        --        --      34.0


  43,135    10,471    10,812    10,905    10,755    42,943
  32,289     8,100     8,510     8,580     8,525    33,715
   6,358     1,595     1,620     1,660     1,680     6,555
   154.3      38.8      40.3      38.1      38.0     155.2


   209.2      50.9      52.6      52.4      52.7     208.7

 1,557.8     425.9   6,903.7   4,493.8        --     425.9
 8,522.3   2,819.1   2,411.9        --        --   8,820.0


   65.21     66.43     64-66     65-69     68-74     65-69
   53.39     51.10     55-57     59-63     56-60     55-58
    61.2      60.0     59-61     61-65     58-62     59-62
    88.2      84.9     80-84     79-85     82-88     81-85
   14.74     13.50    13.00-    13.15-    14.15-    13.45-
                       13.40     13.85     15.15     13.95
    5.48      4.57        --        --        --        --
    3.87      2.77        --        --        --        --
    7.53      7.74        --        --        --        --
   77.93     70.73        --        --        --        --



    1991      1992      1993      1994      1995      1996
----------------------------------------------------------

     703       713       736       782       832       890
     521       507       511       529       550       574

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